From the analysis of respiratory tuberculosis by birth cohort in Finland, projections were made for each cohort. From these projections it was then possible in the reverse order to estimate expected cross-sectional incidence rates for the years 2000 and 2010.
The data suggest that tuberculosis will gradually disappear from the Finnish population. These projections were made in 1988, and as the data for the year 2000 will become available soon, it will be possible to compare expected and observed values.
As Finland has very little immigration, it is an ideal place to study the elimination of tuberculosis from the indigenous population in a country with a rapidly decreasing problem. In few other countries will this be possible with similar convenience. However, as tuberculosis in the indigenous population is not that greatly affected by transmission from tuberculosis among immigrants as shown earlier in the example from Sweden, it is expected that the prospects for the epidemic are excellent for the indigenous population in many industrialized countries.
The observed incidence from notified cases was compared to the projection for the year 2000 and it shows how remarkably well the prediction had been. the projection slightly underestimated the actual situation for the year 2000 but by very little except in the age groups in which tuberculosis has become very rare.
However, tuberculosis will not disappear very soon from many of these countries, and its epidemiology will be increasingly shaped by tuberculosis among immigrants from higher incidence countries. |
